By 2030, the scale of adult incontinence will exceed 50 billion and the aging trend will definitely grow

Product classification and target group

Adult incontinence products mainly include adult diapers, adult lesbian pants, adult diapers, and nursing pads, and the market price is generally lesbian pants (about 3 yuan) > diapers (about 2.5 yuan) > diapers (about 1.5 yuan).  The common brands in the market are reliable (reliable shares), Anerkang (Heng ' a Group), Lehuyi (Unifina), And Debian (Weida).  

Consumer groups of adult incontinence products include elderly incontinence, patients who are bedridden due to surgery or childbirth, and patients with functional needs who cannot go to the toilet due to going out or traffic jams, among which elderly incontinence is the main target consumer group.  

Industry opportunities in the context of aging

China has a fast-aging process and a large population base: The population over 60 years old in China has increased rapidly from 184 million in 2011 to 264 million in 2020, accounting for 13.7% to 18.7% of the total population. China is gradually stepping into a moderately aging country.  The number of people aged 60 or older in China is expected to reach 371 million in 2030, 437 million in 2040, and 483 million in 2050, according to Zhiyan.  The gradually large elderly population and the benefit of pension policy will help the growth of the silver economy, in the segmentation track, the adult incontinence products industry will be a blue sea market.  

Status quo of adult incontinence products industry in China

Low penetration, low concentration, and medium-high growth: in 2019, the penetration rate of the adult incontinence products market was 3%, which is still far behind that of developed countries such as Japan, Europe, and the United States, which is over 60%.  According to Euromonitor data, the total sales channel market size of adult incontinence products in China was about 6.12 billion yuan in 2020, with a market size CAGR of 20.49% from 2006 to 2020, showing rapid development.  The penetration rate of the adult care market in China is currently at a low level, and the competition pattern is scattered. The total amount of CR5 is less than 30%, and all of them are local brands.  In 2020, the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old in China will be 13.5%, and it is expected that the proportion will reach more than 14% in 2021. China will officially enter a moderately aging society, and adult incontinence products will usher indefinite growth under the background of aging.  

Segment industry with the fastest growth in personal care products: From 2006 to 2020, the domestic adult care products market grew from 450 million yuan to 6.12 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.49% in 2015 and a growth rate of about 20%, making it the fastest-growing sub-sector in personal care.  The market size of infant hygiene products was affected by the decline in the number of newborns, with the market size falling from 55.5 billion in 2017 to 49.9 billion in 2019, the first year of negative growth for the industry.  The market of the female care industry is relatively stable, with a growth rate of 5-10% in recent years and market size of 61.1 billion in 2020.  At present, the market size of the adult incontinence products industry is only equivalent to 10% and 10.3% of the female and infant market, but it has become the industry with the most growth potential and certainty of the segment.  

Market size: to reach 50 billion by 2030

Market size = target users × penetration rate × annual product consumption  

The penetration rate of the adult incontinence industry in Japan is estimated to increase by 1 percentage point annually from 2006 to 2010 and 0.5 percentage point annually from 2010 to 2020.  Considering the mature adult incontinence industry in Japan at that time, according to our analysis of Japan above, the moderate aging period from 1996 to 2007 should be a period of rapid development, and the average annual growth rate of penetration rate is likely to be significantly higher than 1 percentage point.  Therefore, it is conservatively estimated that the penetration rate of the adult incontinence industry in the growing stage in China will increase by 2 percentage points annually from 2021 to 2040 (equivalent to Japan's 1993-2013), and that the penetration rate of the adult incontinence industry in China will be 3%, 23% and 43% in 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.  Penetration growth is expected to slow after 2040, with an average annual growth rate of 1%, reaching 53% in 2050 (equivalent to Japan's 2020).  Given that Japan's industry penetration rate reached 80% in 2020, this assumption should be conservative.  

According to the estimated results, China's adult incontinence industry will continue to develop rapidly from 2020 to 2030, and the market size is expected to increase nearly ten times in ten years. By 2030, the market size of China's adult incontinence products will reach 50.78 billion yuan, and the market size of China's adult incontinence industry will reach the same level as the female nursing industry (61.1 billion in 2020).  The market growth rate will slow down from 2030 to 2050, but it will still maintain a steady growth of about double in ten years. It is estimated that the market size of China's adult incontinence industry will reach 253.04 billion yuan in 2050.